- The law of small numbers is one of many examples of a
phenomenon I call a probabilistic illusion
- Just like optical illusions confuse the eye, so
probabilistic illusions confuse our reasoning.
- As we make more use of data this
problem is likely be ever more prevalent, since so many people
suffer from probabilistic illiteracy. Indeed even
scientists and mathematicians get fooled frequently by these illusions.
- Kahneman gives many examples of how our intuitive
reasoning can jump to erroneous conclusions. I strongly
recommend this book to help understand how this happens.